22:30 <raptop> "Were greenhouse gases at pre-industrial levels, natural factors alone would produce a year as hot as 2019 [in Australia] just once every 360 years. But add the effect of human-emitted greenhouse gases and the probability drops to one year in eight—a forty-five-fold increase in probability."

22:33 <raptop> Annoyingly, it's from the sort of column where I'm not going to easily get a DOI

22:33 <raptop> Or, maybe I was wrong http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/docs/2014/lewis2.pdf